Good Morning Coaches,
Just some observations and thoughts on the 2025 3A Boys Tennis Dual Team State Playoff Bracket thus far. I was hoping the last 2 years that these things would not happen but how wrong I was. How can we stop the madness?
Had 2 forfeits in the 1st round, again!
You have the #1 overall seed having to play arguably the best team in the state in 3A in the 3rd round? What a great way to reward our #1 overall seed of the bracket!
You have a struggling (4-9) team (#20+ seed) that finished 5th place in their conference somehow advancing to the 3rd round of the state 3A tournament? The same team that lost 9-0 to two top 12 seeded teams in the bracket TWICE EACH and lost to two conference teams which received seeds in the upper teens TWICE EACHI It is crazy that roughly half the teams in the bracket would have a really really good shot at beating this particular team but those teams ended up losing in the first round. But hey, I am sure we would all like that kind of draw every year!
You have a very solid (#20+ Seed) defeat a good top 12 seed in the first round, defeat an even better top 5 seed in the 2nd round and should have a great match against a top 4 seed in the bracket in the 3rd round! No way this particular team should end up EVERY year on the low 20's line to upset teams that should be advancing much further!
I could go on, and on, and on, but the reality is that some of the best teams are losing early and some of the weaker teams are advancing in 3A at least. In my humble opinion the problem is two fold! There are teams who play the most difficult schedules in the state finish 10-6, and get a much higher seed than they deserve! Then on the flip side you have teams from weaker conferences that play weaker schedules finish 12-1 every single season, and end up with a high seed. Did anyone happen to see the individual scores in MaxPreps between #7 Overhills and #26 Wakefield in the 1st round of the 4A bracket? I am really hoping this new 1A-8A change and the change to the playoffs will remedy this, but I am not holding my breath!
Coach Jay James
In one of those matches you alluded to, the higher rated team lost four tiebreaks.
This isn't a bad thing. After all, if the ratings were perfectly predictive, why play the tournament at all? Why not just give the trophy to the #1 team in the rankings and save the time and trouble?
To wit, the best we can hope for is some incentive to play a stronger, more competitive, non-conference schedule. The better teams will float to the top of the rankings, not necessarily in the precise order of their strength, but somewhere reasonably close.
Some teams will get tougher draws than others ... that's impossible to fix.
Thanks Coach Ramsey
I completely understand upsets happen, but tennis is unfortunately not like other sports which have upsets much more commonly! Lets have Green Hope or Green Level boys play the top 10 1A-3A teams and see how many times they are "upset". I am not saying upsets never happen in high school tennis, but in these brackets the past few years we have seen upsets that should never have been matched up to play each other in the first place. #21 DSOA defeating #12 CB Aycock may be considered an upset, but both teams are very good. I am just at a loss that you can have matchups in the state dual team tournament in 2025 with 2 teams considered weaker than most of the field in the first round or second round! Like you said, I am really hoping that the staggered draw and change to the RPI will help some to avoid two really good teams meeting in the first round or even the second round of the tournament. But again I am not holding my breath when teams are chosen by RPI!Coach Jay James
First, the NCHSAA has eliminated preferential seeding based on conference finish, starting in the fall. That means the draws will be built strictly by a team's RPI, and ends the distortion of the bracket whereby a weak team is the best in its classification in its conference and gets a preferential seed as a "conference champion".
Second, RPI itself is a measure of achievement, and not of team strength. A team that plays a good non-conference schedule may be rated higher than a team that plays only within its conference, but that doesn't predict who will win a match between the two.
Third, RPI, because it's based on winning percentages, is an imperfect measure, because there's not enough data to truly compare teams from different parts of the state. Some teams play in a rural "universe", and some play in an "urban" universe. The strength of the teams is markedly different, but the winning percentages in those areas tend to be more or less the same.
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